How to read Business Pulse and BTOS data

What is BTOS?

The U.S. Census Bureau Business Trends and Outlook Survey (BTOS) is a high-frequency survey of U.S. employer businesses. Data are collected and released every two weeks and are available nationally, by NAICS sector, by state and for the 25 most populous metropolitan statistical areas. The survey universe excludes farms.

Is Business Pulse an official Census product?

No. This product uses the Census Bureau Data API but is not endorsed or certified by the Census Bureau. Business Pulse adds its own ranking, trend and comparison layer over public estimates.

What does an index of 50 mean?

For the core diffusion-style indexes used here, 50 is the balance point between positive and negative change categories. An index of 60 does not mean that 60% of businesses improved.

What is the 0–100 Momentum score?

Business Pulse Momentum is our own ranking. It combines the level of several BTOS indexes with recent multi-release movement, with input-price pressure treated as a headwind. It is not a probability, forecast, investment signal or Census statistic.

What does “score confidence” mean?

It describes how much history and indicator coverage are available for our score. It is not a statistical confidence interval and should not be confused with the sampling uncertainty of an official estimate.

What is the 95% screen?

Where adjacent releases provide standard errors, we apply a simple screen based on the difference between the two estimates and their published standard errors. It is a convenience flag, not the Census Bureau's official change-significance method.

Why can source values change?

Survey estimates can be revised, suppressed for quality reasons, or become temporarily unavailable. Business Pulse may also correct importer or methodology bugs. If a value is material, verify it against the official BTOS source.

Are report dates publication dates?

No. Report URLs and “data through” labels use the BTOS collection-period end date. The Census publication date can be later.

Does the site show state × industry estimates?

No. We do not synthesize combinations that are not available in the automated API feed used by the site. The Census provides additional tabulations through its download files.

How is AI use measured?

The AI page uses the percentage of businesses answering “Yes” to the current BTOS AI-use question. It is a share, not a diffusion index. The Census changed the core AI wording in late 2025, creating a series break that should be respected.

How often does the site update?

The importer checks the Census source automatically. Completed BTOS collection periods are processed after source data are available; partial imports are not intentionally exposed as finished releases.